Methodology
How the frog in the well sees the world. Narrow view, but real numbers.
The 'Frog in the Well' Philosophy
The idiom 'frog in the well' typically carries a negative meaning, describing someone with a limited worldview. But we embrace it differently: acknowledge limitations, focus on what's observable, and let data speak instead of guessing.
Analysis Scope
Total 15 major tech companies representing 3 markets with estimated total revenue of ~$1.8 trillion USD (2025).
What We Do
Collect from official sources
Financial reports (10-K, Annual Reports), IR press releases, data from reputable organizations like S&P Global, Statista, Zacks, Bloomberg.
Transparent calculations
Forecast figures are presented as ranges rather than specific numbers. Example: ~$395–410B instead of $402.5B.
Consistent comparison
All revenues converted to USD based on exchange rates at reporting time. Companies compared within the same timeframe (FY2024, FY2025E).
Clear categorization
Distinguish between: 2024 Estimates (based on actual reports), 2025 Forecasts (based on analyst consensus and company guidance), and YoY Growth (calculated from the two).
Trend analysis
Evaluate growth drivers (AI, Cloud, Commerce), highlights, risks, and new factors for each company based on recent reports.
What We DON'T Do
No investment advice
This is data analysis, not buy/sell stock recommendations. You are responsible for your own decisions.
No certainty in predictions
All forecasts can be wrong. We express uncertainty through ranges (~13–17%) instead of specific numbers.
No apples to oranges
No direct comparison between FPT ($1.8B) and Microsoft ($282B) without context. Each market has its own characteristics.
No chasing rumors
Only use information with clear sources. No hearsay, no 'sources say' claims.
Data Quality
| Data Type | Reliability | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 Revenue | High | Financial reports, IR, SEC filings |
| 2025 Forecast | Medium | Analyst consensus, company guidance |
| YoY Growth | Calculated | From 2024 Est & 2025 Fcst |
| Qualitative Analysis | Subjective | Author's analysis based on public sources |
Limitations & Biases
- Only covers 15 major tech companies, missing thousands of others in the industry
- Focus on revenue, no deep analysis of profit, cash flow, or valuation
- VN data harder to verify than US/CN due to fewer English sources and transparency
- Author has optimistic bias toward Vietnamese companies (being Vietnamese)
- No access to proprietary data (Bloomberg Terminal, FactSet, etc.)
- ByteDance data based on estimates as the company is not publicly listed
Update Frequency
Current Data Period
Found an error? Have a better source?
The frog is always ready to learn. Reach out via GitHub or LinkedIn.