The $1.8 Trillion Tech Race: US, China & Vietnam
From the bottom of the well, the frog watches three skies. 15 tech giants, three different strategies, one AI race. Real numbers - no hype.
The Big Picture
$1.1T
$510B
$4.4B
Frog's Market Watch
5 US companies control $1.1T - Azure AI contributes 8-9% of Microsoft's growth. AWS and Google Cloud racing on AI inference.
ByteDance ($186B) is the only growth story outside borders. Alibaba, Tencent focusing domestically and optimizing margins.
Only $4B but growing 17-25%. FPT stepping into AI Factory, Viettel building national digital infrastructure.
🐸"From the bottom of the well, the frog sees three skies - each with a different game."
Revenue Evolution
Revenue Growth: 2024 → 2025
Tech segment revenue only. Unit: Billion USD.
Top 10 by 2025 revenue
Growth Matrix
Growth vs Scale Matrix
Further right = larger revenue • Higher = faster growth
Top-right = Best (high revenue + high growth). VN small scale but fast growth.
15 Companies Deep Dive
Tech Giants Comparison
Tech Segment Revenue • Billions USD • Click row for details
2024
~350
2025
~395–410
YoY
~13–17%
2024
~245
2025
~282–290
YoY
~15–18%
2024
~165*
2025
~198–205*
YoY
~20–23%
2024
~162
2025
~184–195
YoY
~13–20%
2024
~38
2025
~41.5
YoY
~9–10%
2024
~155
2025
~186–190
YoY
~20–23%
2024
~130
2025
~137–142
YoY
~5–8%
2024
~92
2025
~100–105
YoY
~9–13%
2024
~54–56
2025
~58–62
YoY
~5–10%
2024
~18.5
2025
~19–20
YoY
~0–6%
2024
~1.5
2025
~1.8–1.9
YoY
~20–25%
2024
~1.1
2025
~1.3
YoY
~15–18%
2024
~0.35
2025
~0.40
YoY
~12–14%
2024
~0.40
2025
~0.45–0.48
YoY
~12–20%
2024
~0.30
2025
~0.35–0.38
YoY
~15–25%
| Company | 2024 ($B) | 2025 ($B) | YoY | Status | Driver | Highlights |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alphabet | ~350 | ~395–410 | ~13–17% | Strong Growth | Search + YouTube + Cloud | Google Cloud first time profitable at scale, AI demand drives large backlog |
Microsoft | ~245 | ~282–290 | ~15–18% | Market Leader | Azure + Enterprise SaaS | Azure AI contributes ~8-9pp to cloud growth |
Amazon (AWS/Ads) | ~165* | ~198–205* | ~20–23% | Profit Pillar | AWS + Ads | Ads & AWS carry almost all operating profit |
Meta | ~162 | ~184–195 | ~13–20% | Strong Recovery | AI-driven Ads | Net profit up >60% YoY thanks to AI-optimized ads |
Salesforce | ~38 | ~41.5 | ~9–10% | Stable | Enterprise SaaS | Strong margin improvement from cost discipline |
ByteDance | ~155 | ~186–190 | ~20–23% | Accelerating | TikTok Global + Commerce | TikTok Shop GMV exploding in US & SEA |
Alibaba | ~130 | ~137–142 | ~5–8% | Flat | E-commerce + Cloud | AIDC (AliExpress/Lazada) up >25% |
Tencent | ~92 | ~100–105 | ~9–13% | Stable | Ads + Game + Fintech | Video Accounts Ads up >70% |
PDD Holdings | ~54–56 | ~58–62 | ~5–10% | Cooling Down | Temu Global | 2024 spike (high base) |
Baidu | ~18.5 | ~19–20 | ~0–6% | Slow | Search + AI Cloud | Robotaxi (Apollo) trips increasing |
FPT (Tech) | ~1.5 | ~1.8–1.9 | ~20–25% | Accelerating | Global IT Services | Software exports (JP/US) up >25% |
Viettel (Tech) | ~1.1 | ~1.3 | ~15–18% | Stable | GovTech + Infra | DC & Digital Gov strong growth |
VNPT (Tech) | ~0.35 | ~0.40 | ~12–14% | Slight Growth | Gov & Enterprise Digital | National data, eGov |
VNG | ~0.40 | ~0.45–0.48 | ~12–20% | Recovering | Games + Zalo ecosystem | International gaming recovery |
CMC (Tech) | ~0.30 | ~0.35–0.38 | ~15–25% | Accelerating | Cloud + DC | DC & Cloud services rapid growth |
Frog's Analysis: Three Markets, Three Playbooks
The frog has been watching these numbers for 3 months. Conclusion: US, China, Vietnam are playing 3 completely different games - but all roads lead to AI.
Common Patterns: Two Unstoppable Waves
🧠AI Is No Longer Optional
Microsoft Copilot, Baidu Ernie, FPT AI Factory - from the big three to Vietnamese startups, no AI strategy in 2025 means you've already lost.
☁️Cloud Is The Main Battlefield
AWS vs Azure vs Google Cloud (US), Alibaba vs Tencent (CN), Viettel vs FPT vs CMC (VN). AI runs on cloud - whoever owns the cloud, owns AI.
Three Different Playbooks
Build Foundation Models (GPT, Gemini) → Sell APIs → Collect global fees. Edge: Chips, capital, talent. Risk: Antitrust, massive R&D costs.
No best chips? Optimize algorithms. TikTok Shop, Pinduoduo - fastest AI commerce deployment. Edge: 1.4B users, speed. Risk: Chip sanctions.
Partner with Nvidia, Microsoft, AWS → Provide talent + deployment. FPT AI Factory, Viettel national digital infra. Edge: Cost, neutral position. Risk: Partner dependency.
Frog's Conclusion
The global digital value chain is clearly dividing labor: US builds the "brain" (AI Models/Chips), China builds the "apps" (Super Apps/Commerce), Vietnam is rising as the "hands" - deployment and operations.
2025-2026 trend: Shift from "buying software" to "buying outcomes" (AI Agents).
Vietnam opportunity: Neutral position in chip wars + competitive costs.
"Small frog, deep well, but numbers don't lie. See you in Q1 2026."
🐸Narrow view. Real numbers.
Data from company IR reports, SEC filings, and analyst estimates. Updated: Q4 2024.